The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts an active or extremely active Atlantic hurricane season which runs June 1 through November 30.
Experts at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center base the prediction on three primary climate factors including a strong west African monsoon season, warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea and no formation of El Niño conditions.
The outlook suggests a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these storms, 7 to 11 of them could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. These could include 3 to 6 major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher.
These numbers are above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
NOAA predictions also include below-normal hurricane seasons in the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific Basin.
For the Eastern Pacific, NOAA forecasters expect a 70 percent chance of 11 to 16 named storms, which includes 5 to 8 hurricanes, of which 1 to 4 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). An average season sees 15 named storms, with eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
For the Central Pacific Basin, NOAA predictions are for 1 to 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 to 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.
Click on the following links for further information:
To follow the Atlantic hurricane season from NOAA.
To follow the Atlantic hurricane season from Crown Weather.
To follow the Eastern Pacific hurricane season from NOAA.
To follow the Central Pacific hurricane season from NOAA.
To follow The Weather Channel.
For NOAA hurricane preparedness quide and information.