The Triton

News

BoatUS weighs accuracy of hurricane predictions

ADVERTISEMENT

Every summer, highly qualified experts with supercomputers try to predict how many tropical storms and hurricanes will form in the Atlantic. For this year’s June 1-Nov. 30 hurricane season, most forecasters predict average to above-average storm activity.

But how accurate are those predictions? BoatUS, a national advocacy, services and safety group for boaters, compared more than two decades of storm predictions from Colorado State University’s Philip Klotzbach and the late Bill Gray.

“Our  mission was not to judge the forecasters but to find out how much confidence we should have in the hurricane-season predictions and what it means to boaters,” Charles Fort, director of the BoatUs Seaworthy Program, said in a statement.

Seaworthy found that out of 22 years of hurricane activity forecasts, one was 100 percent accurate. In some years, there were as many as eight more storms than predicted.

Boaters often misinterpret what the forecasters try to do, Fort said. “Early season hurricane predictions don’t attempt to forecast the percentage of storms that will come ashore or which coastal locations will be in the crosshair.”

Fort advises boaters to hope for the best but prepare for the worst. For more information, visit www.boatus.com.

Related Posts...
UPDATE: Wed., Sept. 20 Click for Hurricane Maria update for Read more...
The Marine Industry Cares Foundation in South Florida has organized Read more...
UPDATE: Mon., Sept. 18 Barbuda’s ambassador to the United States, Read more...
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District, awarded a Read more...

Share This Post

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Please answer the question below to leave a comment. * Time limit is exhausted. Please reload CAPTCHA.

Editor’s Picks

Fort Pierce yard gets another chance

Fort Pierce yard gets another chance

County commissioners in St. Lucie County voted yesterday to buy 12 acres of land in the Port of Fort Pierce for $25 million and operate a …

Hurricane Maria impacts Caribbean as a major storm

Hurricane Maria impacts Caribbean as a major storm

UPDATE: Wed., Sept. 20 Click for Hurricane Maria update for Sept. 20 from Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS)'s …

Competition, workshops for interior crew at Monaco

Competition, workshops for interior crew at Monaco

Stews, don't miss the chance to strut your stuff at the Monaco Yacht Show this year. G.U.E.S.T. (Guidelines for Unified Excellence in …

Windowless cars, damaged boats, rare flights aid Tortola escape after Hurricane Irma

Windowless cars, damaged boats, rare flights aid Tortola escape after Hurricane Irma

By Dorie Cox The first frightening trip was out the door of the hotel bathroom. Four charter boat guests stood up from the floor of …